Modeling non-motorized travel demand at intersections based on traffic counts and GIS data in Calgary, Canada

摘要

In September 2009, the City of Calgary Council approved Plan It Calgary, which proposes policies that focus on the development of resilient neighborhoods through the intensification and diversification of urban activities around transit stations and routes. More intensive development and mixed land use encourage non-motorized trips and reinforce comfortable, safe and walkable streets. The development of high-density, mixed-use and transit- and pedestrian-oriented communities has the potential to generate shorter trips to destinations, which are expected to result in a higher share of active travel modes, such as biking and walking. Thus, there is a growing need to estimate the impact of land-use development scenarios and transportation policies on bicycle and pedestrian demand to predict future non-motorized trip volumes and adequately design the related infrastructure. This paper calibrates multiple linear and Poisson regression models to estimate non-motorized travel demand based on GIS data, transportation services, and road characteristics. The empirical models that have been developed in this research can be used to assess the impacts of urban design and built environments, such as developing high-density and mix-land-use areas, building complete streets in the middle ring communities of Calgary, and influencing the demand for active travel modes. The developed models also show the benefits of improved pedestrian infrastructure, such as improved network connectivity and increases in the length of pedestrian pathways, as well as the integration of transit and walking modes and transit and bicycle modes in encouraging more non-motorized travel demand. This method is a straightforward statistical analysis for practitioners, and the needed data are relatively easy to access.