China's wind installed capacity has grown at a remarkable rate,over 80 percent annually average since 2005,reaching 76.5 GW of capacity in 2012.This rapid growth has been the result of a domestic manufacturing base and favorable national policies,and has resulted in now China accounting for over 27 percent of global capacity.Further evolution will be greatly aided with a detailed wind resource assessment that identifies total resources,seasonal and daily variability across China.We utilized 200 representative locations for which 10 years of hourly wind speed data exist to develop provincial capacity factors from 2001 to 2010,and to build analytic wind speed profiles.From these data and analysis we find that China's wind generation could reach 2,730 TWh to 7,187 TWh,which could supply one-third to three quarters of national total projected demand of 9,845 TWh in 2030.Nationally this would correspond to an average capacity factor of 0.18.The diurnal and seasonal variation shows spring and winter has better wind resources than in the summer and fall.The full economic assessment of exploitable wind resources demands a larger,systems-level analysis of China's energy options for which this work is a core necessity.
展开▼
