Where, when and how much wind is available? A provincial-scale wind resource assessment for China

摘要

China's wind installed capacity has grown at a remarkable rate, over 80% annually average growth since 2005, reaching 91.5 GW of capacity by end of 2013, accounting for over 27% of global capacity. This rapid growth has been the result of a domestic manufacturing base and favorable national policies. Further evolution will be greatly aided with a detailed wind resource assessment that incorporates spatial and temporal variability across China. We utilized 200 representative locations for which 10 years of hourly wind speed data exist to develop provincial capacity factors from 2001 to 2010, and to build analytic wind speed profiles. From these data and analysis we find that China's annual wind generation could reach 2000 TWh to 3500 TWh. Nationally this would correspond to an average capacity factor of 0.18. The diurnal and seasonal variation shows spring and winter has better wind resources than in the summer and fall. A highly interconnected and coordinated power system is needed to effectively exploit this large but variable resource. A full economic assessment of exploitable wind resources demands a larger, systems-level analysis of China's energy options, for which this work is a core requirement.