Dynamic modelling for ecological and economic sustainability in a rapid urbanizing region

摘要

Recently years, most of China's rapidly developed regions are becoming China's large industrial cities and drawing the attention of the world. Consequently, the impacts of rapid urbanization to urban ecosystem will be greatly increased with the increasing economic development. If relationship between economic development and ecological sustainability is not fully realized, urban ecosystem will be degraded at a high rate. Therefore, study on ecological and economic sustainability for this area is of great importance. The objectives of this study are: (1) to find a balance between economic development and ecological protection in these regions; (2) to develop a process-based ecological and economic sustainable development model; (3) to supply the optimal controls for these reigns by conducting a policy analysis. To this end, a system dynamic model for urban sustainable development was constructed. The model was based on the analysis of many index and three subsystems, which are society system, economic system, and environmental system. We also selected typical development policies for a rapidly urbanizing region, Tianjin, in the future.