Cluster Analysis of Crude Oil Production: Is OPEC monthly production really that different from non-OPEC production? (abstract)

摘要

Much has been said about the ability of OPEC to manipulate crude oil prices. Yet, OPEC producers can only affect prices through coordinated changes in their production levels. If this takes place then it is expected that there would be some variation in the way production changes through time, with OPEC production changes differing from non-OPEC production changes for example. I explore the possibility of production clustering across crude oil producing nations using EIA monthly crude oil production data for 20 crude oil producing nations. This group includes the 12 key OPEC members (Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela) as well as the major non-OPEC crude oil producing nations (Canada, China, Egypt, Russia, Mexico, Norway, UK, US). I find considerable evidence of dissimilarity in country production for the full period and for the first half of the study period through to 1990, but there is little evidence of OPEC based clustering in the subsequent period from 1990 to 2010 with virtually all of the crude oil producers falling within one cluster during this period. It would appear that the OPEC attitude to price manipulation changed dramatically around 1990.