Cyclonic Circulation in the Western Irish Sea in Future Climate

摘要

The Irish Sea (IS) is a semi-enclosed body of water on the European Continental Shelf and the Western Irish Sea Gyre (WISG) is a characteristic phenomenon'of the Sea. The gyre due to its significant effects on the circulation, transport and retention of pollutants within IS has important commercial and environmental implications. Global ocean MPI-OM model was run in conjunction with high resolution IS model ECOMSED for the period 1990-2090 in order to determine future long-term changes in climate parameters (SST) of the IS as well as in the gyre structure. Potential Energy Anomaly (PEA) and Total Kinetic Energy (TKE) are used to quantify strength of stratification and cyclonic flow. Projected SST exhibits a warming trend of 1.78'C for the 100-year period. A substantial increase in PEA peak value is accompanied by shortening of the gyre duration and retardation of the peak occurrence. An increasing trend in TKE shows that thermal stratification plays a crucial role in the hydrography of the region.