Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: present and future climate scenarios derived from a general circulation model (HadAM3P)

摘要

In this paper, an attempt is made to assess and evaluate the skill of theHadley Center atmospheric General Circulation Model (HadAM3P) in generatingsuccessfully the frequency and intensity of severe cyclones (<1000 hPa) inthe Mediterranean region. The cyclonic occurrence is studied in threeregions of enhanced cyclonic activity: Gulf of Genoa, Southern Italy andCyprus. It was found that the HadAM3P predicts a future decrease of thefrequency of the severe cyclones at the SLP level, but the future cycloneswill be more intense (deeper), especially at the 500 hPa level.