Uncertainty in lifespan estimation and its potential impacts on our social system

摘要

Information on the lifespan of the product is necessary to estimate the amount of its end-of-life (EOL) goods that recycling programs can expect to receive. Policymakers can set priorities for handling the EOLs, such as target collection and recovery levels, based on these estimates. In this study, we conducted a questionnaire survey to obtain information on lifespan distribution of small-size home appliances and then analyzed how this information impacts recycling system design. We found that the distribution estimates have a non-negligible level of uncertainty; accordingly, a recycling system must be designed to take this uncertainty into account.