A daily hydrological system management model that takes meteorological forecast errors into account

摘要

Meteorological forecasts for the next few days are usually not detailed enough to determine the exact probability distribution of the forecast precipitation, and, hence, the probability distribution of the forecast inflow into the hydrological system. However, the hydrological system manager is responsible for assessing the risk of flooding and violating constraints when operating the reservoirs. This paper deals with the problems involved in modeling forecast errors and of determining an operating policy that takes such errors into account. This is accomplished by first building an inflow scenario tree that takes forecast errors into account and then by solving the reservoir management problem with that tree. This paper describes how the tree was built.