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Methodology to Quantify the Value of Information Incorporating Operational Flexibility

机译:方法来量化包含操作灵活性的信息价值

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At the beginning of field development, many questions regarding the reservoir structural model still remain and it is necessary to mitigate this uncertainty and associated risk before the final field development plan proposition. Mitigation of risks and uncertainties can be done in two ways: through additional information acquisition and operational flexibility, but both have limitations. Information has value within a project up to the point where the benefits obtained do not outweigh its acquisition cost. Flexibility may not be viable due to the impossibility of practical changes in the production strategies or in the facilities when these are already in operation. The value of information (VOI) and value of flexibility (VOF) are resources capable of quantifying the relevance of information and flexibilities in reducing project risk, as demonstrated by the methodology proposed by Xavier (2004). However, this methodology considers fixed production strategies, which may significantly impact the value of information, overestimating it because it does not incorporate future flexibility. Thus, the objective of this paper is to improve this methodology through the implementation of an assisted automated process for strategy selection and optimization, incorporating operational flexibility to the project by reducing the number of dry wells and through a more accurate dimensioning of the production strategies and facilities. The methodology is applied to one simple case, where the only uncertain attribute is the structural model, aimed at the validation of the automated methodology. The results indicate that, in the initial phase of development, the more accurate design of the production strategies and facilities has a direct impact on the expected monetary value of the project, which is reflected in the VOI and in the decision analysis, increasing the accuracy and the value of these tools in projects with a high degree of associated uncertainty.
机译:在油田开发之初,关于储层构造模型,许多问题仍然存在,有必要减轻最终油田开发方案的命题之前这种不确定性和相关风险。风险和不确定性的缓解可以通过两种方式来完成:通过额外的信息获取和操作灵活性,但都有局限性。信息有多达那里获得的收益不超过其购置成本点项目中值。灵活性是不可行由于在生产战略的实际变化是不可能的,或在设施时,这些都已经在运作。的信息(VOI)的价值和灵活性(VOF)的价值,并降低项目风险能够量化的信息的相关性的资源灵活性,由泽维尔(2004)提出的方法所证实。然而,这种方法考虑了固定的生产策略,这可能显著影响的信息的价值,高估它,因为它不包含未来的灵活性。因此,本文的目的是提高通过对策略选择和优化的辅助自动化过程的执行这种方法,通过减少干井的数量和通过的生产策略一个更精确的尺寸和结合操作灵活性到项目设施。该方法被应用到一个简单的例子,其中唯一的不确定属性是结构模型,目的是在自动化的方法的验证。结果表明,在发展的初始阶段,生产战略和设施更准确的设计对项目,这反映在VOI和决策分析的预期货币价值产生直接的影响,提高了精度和这些工具的项目具有高度的不确定性的价值。

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