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ENHANCING VALUE OF SPACE-BORNE SYSTEMS FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION RESEARCH AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

机译:增强空间传播系统的灾害风险减少研究和灾害风险管理

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Purpose: Using the 2010 flood event in Pakistan as a case study, the paper highlights the political, socio-economic, and environmental context in which information from space-borne systems is used to coordinate international disaster response. The purpose is to enable the space-technology community to gain a more holistic understanding of stakeholders and their information needs. We simulate the 2010 flood event using a coupled land-atmosphere modeling system. The results illustrate how data from space- borne systems can enhance the reliability and predictive ability of models and facilitate decision making during natural disasters through more effective knowledge management. Methodology: In July and August of 2010, six major pulses of torrential rain occurred over northern Pakistan plunging approximately one fifth of the country under water. The floods affected over 20 million people, killing over 1,985 people, destroying or damaging over 1.6 million homes and killing more than an estimated 300,000 livestock. The World Bank estimated the cost of reconstruction at USD 10 billion, which was approximately two percent of Pakistan's Gross National Product, and almost 30 percent of its annual tax revenue. According to the International Monetary Fund, the total economic impact of flooding to rural livelihoods, agricultural output, industrial input and infrastructure, including lost economic productivity was expected to total USD 43 billion. We assess the magnitudc and extent of deforestation over the study region using data from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometcr (MODIS). We conduct modeling simulations of the flood event using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system using two different Land use/Land cover datasets, and compare the results against in situ observations. Sensitivity simulations are conducted to explore the effectiveness of reforestation initiatives aimed at reducing flood damage. Results: The analysis provides a first-order assessment of the impact that deforestation has had on flood damage. Space-borne systems enhance the reliability and predictive ability of earth system models, which are not only capable of informing decisions related to flood response and relief operations, but also provide pre-event vulnerability assessment of population and infrastructure to extreme events. Conclusion: With technology-enabled connectedness increasing the possibility that local disasters will have regional or global implications, the need for timely and reliable information from a variety of sources, including space-borne observations and earth system models has grown significantly. The full benefits of such systems will not be realized without a persistent and well-organized communication effort between receivers and suppliers of information.
机译:目的:利用巴基斯坦的洪水2010事件作为案例研究,本文着重介绍其中来自天基系统的信息来协调国际救灾的政治,社会,经济和环境方面。其目的是使空间技术的社区,以获得利益相关者和他们的信息需求,更全面的理解。我们模拟使用耦合土地大气建模系统2010年一遇的洪水。结果说明从星载系统的数据如何增强模型的可靠性和预测能力,并通过更有效的知识管理自然灾害时便于决策。方法:在7月至2010年8月,暴雨六大脉冲发生在巴基斯坦北部暴跌大约在水下全国的五分之一。洪水影响超过20万人,夺去了1985人,摧毁或损坏超过160万个家庭和超过大约30万牲畜杀死更多。世界银行估计重建在10十亿美元的成本,这是巴基斯坦国民生产总值的百分之二左右,年税收收入的近30%。据国际货币基金组织(IMF),水浸农村生活,农业生产,工业投入和基础设施,包括失去的经济生产力的总体经济影响,预计总USD 43十亿。我们评估在使用来自陆地卫星专题映射器(TM)和中分辨率成像Spectroradiometcr(MODIS)数据的研究区域中的magnitudc和森林砍伐的程度。我们进行模拟使用天气研究预报(WRF)使用两种不同的土地利用/土地覆盖数据集建模系统洪水事件的模拟,结果对实地观测比较。灵敏度仿真进行探索的旨在减少泡水造林倡议的有效性。结果:分析提供的冲击,砍伐森林对洪水破坏了一阶的评估。天基系统,提高可靠性和地球系统模型,不仅能够通知有关洪水响应和救援行动决策的预测能力,而且还提供人口和基础设施的预事件的脆弱性评估极端事件。结论:随着技术支持的连通增加地方的灾害将具有区域或全球影响的可能性,需要从多种来源,包括空基观测和地球系统模型及时,可靠的信息显著增长。这种系统的全部好处不会没有接收者和信息供应商之间的持久和组织良好的沟通努力来实现。

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