Enhancing Emergency Response Readiness and Crisis Management Effectiveness Through Predictive Advanced Modeling Tools

摘要

Objectives/Scope: Emergency preparedness and Crisis Management represent one of the key elements when it comes to deal with Major Accidents both for onshore and offshore facilities. Wherever process complexity (highly congested areas, simultaneous operations, presence of high H2S concentrations) and context features (desert areas, deep waters) are experienced, there is a high potential to hinder an effective response, especially in the unfortunate case that the emergency extends beyond the asset boundaries. Considerations above lead to develop an integrated approach to Emergency Response and Crisis Management, which can rely not only on management systems, plans and procedures but also on advanced tools to model critical accident scenarios. The biggest challenge in these terms is posed by the reliability of existing tools; in fact, most of the commercial package models available in the market may not be exhaustive enough to describe in detail both the near-field and far-field impact of major events like blowouts and toxic gas dispersions, taking into account the real meteocean conditions in a region of interest. The near-field results shall be used to support the emergency response processes (securing of areas, evacuation and short-term business continuity) which on the other hand need to be supported by the far-field impact assessment that provides useful info to manage potential long-term exposure of population. Yet far-field/long-term impacts to natural/societal unprotected environments cannot be exclusively evaluated with short-term modeling but needs to be treated with a dynamic approach, using advanced modeling tools to simulate the evolution of HC release or toxic dispersion events.