Sustainability Assessment of an Integrated Economic-Ecologic-Social Model under Time-Dependent Uncertainties

摘要

A generalized mathematical model based on compartments is used to represent economic, ecological and social elements of a real-world ecosystem. The model is then posed as an optimal control problem by maximizing/minimizing alternative sustainability indicators. Further, we include stochastic processes to represent the time-dependent uncertainties of some of the model parameters. The result is a stochastic optimal control problem; mortality and birth rates are assumed as stochastic parameters. The aim of this paper is solving the optimal control problem to derive time-dependent socio-economic policies which result in optimal values for the performance indicators (used as measures of sustainability). A numerical technique based on the BONUS algorithm is used for solving the large-scale dynamic optimization model. The case-study shows the benefits of applying the proposed methodology and illustrates the impact of human activities on the ecosystem.