Uncertainty and Sensitivity Assessments of GPS and GIS Integrated Applications for Transportation

摘要

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods are introduced, concerning the quality of spatial data as well as that of output information from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated applications for transportation. In the methods, an error model and an error propagation method form a basis for formulating characterization and propagation of uncertainties. They are developed in two distinct approaches: analytical and simulation. Thus, an initial evaluation is performed to compare and examine uncertainty estimations from the analytical and simulation approaches. The evaluation results show that estimated ranges of output information from the analytical and simulation approaches are compatible, but the simulation approach rather than the analytical approach is preferred for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, due to its flexibility and capability to realize positional errors in both input data. Therefore, in a case study, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based upon the simulation approach is conducted on a winter maintenance application. The sensitivity analysis is used to determine optimum input data qualities, and the uncertainty analysis is then applied to estimate overall qualities of output information from the application. The analysis results show that output information from the non-distance-based computation model is not sensitive to positional uncertainties in input data. However, for the distance-based computational model, output information has a different magnitude of uncertainties, depending on position uncertainties in input data.