A Fuzzy Cognitive Map Approach to Investigate the Sustainability of the Social Security System in Jordan

摘要

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps are emerging as an important new tool in economic modelling. The aim of this study is to investigates the use of fuzzy cognitive maps with their learning algorithms, based on genetic algorithms, for the purposes of prediction of economic sustainability. A Case study data are extracted from the Jordanian Social Security system for the last 120 months; The Real-Code genetic algorithm and structure optimization algorithm were chosen for their ability to select the most significant relationships between the concepts and to predict future development of the Jordanian social security revenues and expenses. The study shows that fuzzy cognitive maps models clearly predict the future of a complex financial system with incoming and outgoing flows. Therefore, this research confirms the benefits of fuzzy cognitive maps applications as a tool for scholarly researchers, economists and policy makers.