An Essay on Global Food Trends and Their Implications for the Meat and Egg Industries

摘要

Back in 1973, 45 years ago, international grain markets were reeling from the onslaught of "The Great Russian Grain Robbery": harvests in the Ukraine had collapsed in a drought and USA grain stocks were surreptitiously purchased to make up the difference causing a huge spike in international prices, which spawned food price inflation across the globe. A dyspeptic Malthusian view prevailed, viz. that our world would not cope with the anticipated increase in demand for food occasioned by the expected doubling of the world's population over the next 50 years or so. Population projections proved accurate (2018 global population is 7.8 billion versus 3.9 billion in 1973) but the pundits were proven wrong: too many in our world are under- and/or malnourished, but the incidence of undernourishment has fallen sharply. By 2050, a further 2 billion will be added to the global population and, again, "experts" predict consequential inevitable food shortages. Deja vu? Agriculture will be transformed over the next few decades and food supply will expand to meet burgeoning demand. The critical issue/will be whether, in expanding global food production, we shall do irreversible damage to the environment or learn to produce more from less with a much lighter global food footprint.