Oil price : Saudi Arabia vs Shale oil

摘要

The collapse of oil prices from $115 per barrel in June 2014 to less than 30 at the beginning of 2016 before a recovery at the end of 2016 has been largely discussed and the reasons are clear. Oil production increased in the US, each year, by one million barrels per day because of the development of shale oil (Light tight oil). The production of LTO was – about – 1 Mb/d in 2010, 2 in 2011, 3 in 2012, 4 in 2014 and 5 in 2015. The total increase of oil production in the US was a bit more important because of the development of the oil production in other regions (Gulf of Mexico for instance). Taking into account the increase in the production of oil sands in Canada, the development of the production of liquids (crude oil, natural gas liquids, some biofuels …) in North America should allow the continent (Canada, US, Mexico) to become self sufficient for oil. A huge change compared to 2005 when 2/3 of the oil consumed in the US was imported from abroad (Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and of course Middle East and West Africa)In addition, the production in Saudi Arabia and Russia the two largest oil producers with the US remained healthy and was on the rise. All the same, the production of most countries in the Gulf, starting with Iran (after lifting of the sanctions), Iraq and even United Arab Emirates and Kuwait could increase. Prospects were also very positive for the production in Kazakhstan (Kashagan field), in Brazil and in a few African countries. The only big producing countries with a relatively bleak outlook were Nigeria and Libya.