Evaluation of the National Concept Traffic Management for mass evacuation in the Netherlands

摘要

It is impossible to execute a complete and total preventive evacuation of coastal areas in the Netherlands within the available 48-hour time span in case of a storm surge [1,2]. This is mainly due to the limitations of the road capacity in proportion to the number of inhabitants in the threatened area. A flexible triage is proposed to set the target areas and target groups for those circumstances where it is impossible to evacuate all. The routing of all highway traffic (evacuation as well as not-evacuation) was derived from the National Concept Traffic Management (NCTM). In order to reduce the lead-time of the study a mix of static and macroscopic dynamic assignments is used.