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Time-delayed propagating failures: a stochastic model

机译:时延传播失败:随机模型

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In the present paper we propose a new approach for modeling propagating failures which occur with a time delay with respoect to the initiating failure. The approach is b ased on the Kolmogorov-Dmitriev theory of branching stochastic processes for the description of the interaction between an initiating failure of a component and the consequent behaviour of the other components of the system. When a component fails, it can stochastically initiate failures on a number of other compoents according to given multivariate probabilistic laws. The propagation of the failures, however, is not instantaneous so that the successive failures of the components occur with a stochastic time delay, similarly to the way delayed neutrons are emitted by their precursors in a nuclear reactor.
机译:在本文中,我们提出了一种新的建模方法,用于对传播性故障进行建模,该传播性故障发生时延与初始故障有关。该方法基于分支随机过程的Kolmogorov-Dmitriev理论,用于描述组件的初始故障与系统其他组件的后续行为之间的相互作用。当组件发生故障时,它可以根据给定的多元概率定律随机引发其他许多组件的故障。但是,失效的传播不是瞬时的,因此部件的连续失效以随机的时间延迟发生,类似于延迟中子在核反应堆中由其前体发射的方式。

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