Development of Launch Area Risk Assessment Input Data for Ares I-X

摘要

Ares I-X is the first test flight of the Ares launch vehicle currently being developed by NASA. The launch of Ares I-X, scheduled for April 2009, will serve as a critical milestone for NASA to resume its human exploration of the lunar surface as part of the newly formed Constellation Program. Prior to launch, NASA and the Air Force 45th Space Wing (45SW)quantify the estimated risk to the public in the launch area vicinity using complex trajectory modeling and probabilistic methods for vehicle failure scenarios. The data inputs for the Launch Area Risk Assessment (LARA) are derived and generated by NASA and then transmitted to the 45SW for incorporation into Air Force LARA models to obtain final risk estimates. The risk estimates can then be communicated to senior managers to enable them to make informed risk mitigation and policy decisions. The LARA data inputs for the Ares I-X launch vehicle include trajectory, reliability, and general vehicle information. The methodology utilized to generate the Ares I-X LARA data inputs will be discussed, along with a sample of the preliminary results. An overview of the range safety risk analysis process and general vehicle information will also be presented.