THE IMPACT ANALYSIS ON GROUP CONSENSUS FOR EMERGENCY DECISION-MAKING OF LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS: AN EXTREME RISK PREFERENCE PERSPECTIVE

摘要

Reaching high-consensus of decision-making in a short period of time is crucial in an event of emergency during large-scale projects. However, the pressure of time and complex risk preferences of decision-making members make it difficult for high-consistency decision making in real projects. In order to study the influence of extreme preference members on group consensus in emergency decision-making of large-scale projects, this article takes the Tan Jian-shan Gold Mine expansion project in China as an example and takes viewpoint dynamics theory, group decision theory and opinion leader theory as research methods. Then the risk preference influence model, the risk preference similarity model and the risk preference evolution model are constructed to analyze the case data. From the case data and model analysis in the perspective of risk preference, we can see the structure of decision-making members in large-scale infrastructure projects formed by two types of decision makers: extreme preference members and non-extreme preference members. Finally, through big data simulation, we find that the acceptance degree, the influence of duration and other parameters will affect the power of extreme preference members, and further will influence the consensus time. The influence of extreme preference members on group consensus is positively, negatively or even reversely affected in an event of emergency during large-scale projects. This study plays a certain reference in leadership of specific groups on group consensus in large-scale projects and provides a feasible method for risk decision-making in the emergency event of large-scale projects.