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模糊多维偏好群决策的BOT项目风险管理研究

         

摘要

运用模糊的语言变量进行多属性事物的群体评价决策,即模糊信息多维偏好群决策.由于BOT项目的风险结构十分复杂,如何对BOT项目风险进行有效的分级管理显得十分重要.系统地分析了BOT全生命周期风险的内容与属性,运用模糊决策理论和多维线性规划模型,结合改进的Borda分值法,构建了BOT项目生命周期的模糊信息多维偏好线性规划风险评价模型.模型中既考虑了决策者意见的一致性,又兼顾了决策意见的差异性,为BOT项目风险管理和评价提供了新的思路.%Fuzzy information and multidimensional preference group decision means group multiple attribute decision making by using the fuzzy linguistic variables. Because of the complicated structure of project risk, it is very important that how to level and manage BOT project risk effectively. This paper analyzes the whole BOT life cycle risks and their property systematically, combined with improved Borda score method and fuzzy multi attribute decision making and linear programming techniques, constructed a BOT whole life cycle fuzzy information multidimensional linear programming decision model. This model takes into account not only the decision makers' consistency views but also their inconsistency views, it gives us a innovative idea of BOT project risk management.

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