Fuzzy Logic Ideas Can Help in Explaining Kahneman and Tversky's Empirical Decision Weights

摘要

Analyzing how people actually make decisions, the Nobelist Daniel Kahneman and his co-author Amos Tversky found out that instead of maximizing the expected gain, people maximize a weighted gain, with weights determined by the corresponding probabilities. The corresponding empirical weights can be explained qualitatively, but quantitatively, these weights remain largely unexplained. In this paper, we show that with a surprisingly high accuracy, these weights can be explained by fuzzy logic ideas.