Design and Application for the Method of Dynamic Weighted Moving Average Forecasting

摘要

In traditional prediction methods,we have to overcome the errors when predict for the dynamic data. In this paper, the dynamic prediction theory and moving average forecasting has been combined. We had designed a kind of weighted moving average forecasting method to predict the data of time series. Dynamic weighting parameter has been constructed in the original moving average forecast. The prediction effect is better than moving average forecast when compared the relative error. At last, we predicted the Urumqi prediction of precipitation for 30 years with this method. The effect of the prediction of relative error is smaller.