Temporal Effects in Adaptations of Daily Commuter Trip Choices in Response to Reward Scheme: A Panel Effects Mixed Logit Model Allowing for Covariance between Adaptation Strategies

摘要

Several reward-scheme based projects have been implemented in the Netherlands,stimulating car users to avoid using certain links of the network during peak hours. Thispaper reports the findings of a model, which was formulated to analyze temporal effects ofthe Dutch SpitsScoren reward scheme. On the one hand, one might expect that rewardschemes lose their effectiveness over time as individuals tend to fall back in their old habits.On the other hand, by changing their routines, individuals may enjoy their new travelexperience, which in turn may lead to positive reinforcement and ultimately to new habitualbehavior. On balance, the impact of these opposite processes may work out differently fordifferent segments of travelers. To disentangle these effects, a panel effects mixed logitmodel, predicting the probability of applying different adaptation strategies, including theoption of no change, was estimated. Because the various strategies may be correlated, themodel also allows for covariance between the options. Results indicate that socio-economicand situational variables strongly affect travelers’ adaptation strategies. Moreover, theeffectiveness of the reward scheme changes over time and affects the various optionsdifferently. The estimated model also shows evidence of significant covariances betweenadaptation strategies.