Temporal Effects in Adaptations of Daily Commuter Trip Choices in Response to Reward Scheme: A Panel Effects Mixed Logit Model Allowing for Covariance between Adaptation Strategies

摘要

Several reward-scheme based projects have been implemented in the Netherlands, stimulating car users to avoid using certain links of the network during peak hours. This paper reports the findings of a model, which was formulated to analyze temporal effects of the Dutch SpitsScoren reward scheme. On the one hand, one might expect that reward schemes lose their effectiveness over time as individuals tend to fall back in their old habits. On the other hand, by changing their routines, individuals may enjoy their new travel experience, which in turn may lead to positive reinforcement and ultimately to new habitual behavior. On balance, the impact of these opposite processes may work out differently for different segments of travelers. To disentangle these effects, a panel effects mixed logit model, predicting the probability of applying different adaptation strategies, including the option of no change, was estimated. Because the various strategies may be correlated, the model also allows for covariance between the options. Results indicate that socio-economic and situational variables strongly affect travelers’ adaptation strategies. Moreover, the effectiveness of the reward scheme changes over time and affects the various options differently. The estimated model also shows evidence of significant covariances between adaptation strategies.