Impact of climate change on human dietary exposure to heavy metals in the Netherlands

摘要

Background and Aims The main goal of 'Climate Cascades' is to assess the potential impact of changes in toxic substances and waterborne pathogens resulting from the effects of climate change on soil, groundwater and surface water at the river basin scale, on man and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. In the course of this project, the impact of climate change on a.o. human dietary exposure to heavy metals for selected case study areas in the Netherlands will be investigated. Climate change is likely to affect fate and transport of heavy metals in the environment. Effects may be very different for the environmental compartments considered. Changes in meteorological conditions can, e.g., cause soil acidification and alterations of organic matter decomposition which, in turn, affects the mobilization of metals in the soil and their availability. Until now, little information is available about the impact of climate change on the environmental distribution of heavy metals and their potential effects on man and ecosystems. Moreover, the absence of health indicators is a serious blind spot in the climate change discussion. There is a need for appropriate methods to conceptualize the full chain of events leading to potential health effects. Climate Cascades wants to meet all these lacks. Methods and Results In the project, a number of relevant climate change scenarios will be defined. Model simulations based on these scenarios will reveal the changing dynamics and shifts in the distribution of heavy metals in environmental compartments and provide quantitative estimates of the impact of these changes on human health via the food chain. Two human exposure models, S-Risk and XtraFood, will be adapted to assess human exposure to heavy metals via food consumption under these scenarios of changing climatic conditions. Conclusions With the results obtained in Climate Cascades, potential impacts of heavy metals in relation to climate change and human dietary exposure will be evaluated.