TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY DURING EVACUATION: THE IMPACT OF HETEROGENEOUS DRIVING BEHAVIOR

摘要

Earlier studies have shown that driving behavior differs strongly at emergency conditionsand normal traffic conditions. In this paper, we continue on these findings byinvestigating how these differences in driving behavior have an impact on travel timereliability. In particular, we focus on the effect of (relatively strong) heterogeneity in thedriving behavior. To this end, the microscopic simulation framework S-Paramics isadapted accordingly, and applied to the emergency evacuation network of the Dutch cityof Almere. This experimental setup allows a structured and in-depth analysis of therelationship between a number of driving behavior parameters and the emergent traveltime reliability. The main findings from this study are thus insightful and directlyapplicable for evacuation planning and management studies. For instance, it is found thatalthough a reduction in drivers’ mean time-headway and minimum gap acceptancetypically improves the overall evacuation time, at the same time this yields less reliabletravel times. Also, the reliability of travel times decreases over time resulting in (much)less reliable travel times for those travelers who depart later. And finally, in general,heterogeneity in driving behavior strongly reduces travel time reliability.