The Prediction of Continuity of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund Based on Markov Chain and Actuarial

摘要

Basic endowment insurance is an important part of social insurance. At present, the researches on the continuity of basic endowment insurance fund are mainly actuarial methods which come from commercial insurance. To handle the uncertainty in social insurance, the paper proposes an analysis mechanism which adopts massive real data and founds on actuarial model and various forecasting methods. Firstly, after analysing the data and the characteristics of basic endowment insurance of China, the paper establishes the actuarial model of fund balance and uses various forecasting methods to predict the influencing factors of fund. Secondly, the Markov chain is used to forecast the number of the attendees that play different roles as paying and receiving. Finally, actuarial model and forecasting methods are combined to forecast the continuity of the endowment insurance fund. The experimental result shows the performance of our method is effective and feasible.