Prediction of Rainfall Time Series Using Modular RBF Neural Network Model Coupled with SSA and PLS

摘要

In this paper, a new approach using an Modular Radial Basis Function Neural Network (M-RBF-NN) technique is presented to improve rainfall forecasting performance coupled with appropriate data-preprocessing techniques by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Partial Least Square (PLS) regression. In the process of modular modeling, SSA is applied for the time series extraction of complex trends and finding structure. In the second stage, the data set is divided into different training sets by used Bagging and Boosting technology. In the third stage, then modular RBF NN predictors are produced by different kernel function. In the fourth stage, PLS technology is used to choose the appropriate number of neural network ensemble members. In the final stage, least squares support vector regression is used for ensemble of the M-RBF-NN to prediction purpose. The developed RBF-NN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Liuzhou, Guangxi. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with the same input information. Additionally, forecasts by M-RBF-NN model were compared to the convenient approach. Results show that that the predictions using the proposed approach are consistently better than those obtained using the other methods presented in this study in terms of the same measurements. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the proposed M-RBF-NN technique provides a promising alternative to rainfall prediction.