Structural Reliability Analysis of Corroded Pipeline made in X60 Steel Based on M5 Model Tree Algorithm and Monte Carlo Simulation

摘要

Accurate determination of the failure probability of oil and gas pipeline is very important in integrity assessment and work conditions of such structure. In this paper, the failure probability of the corroded pipelines which is made by X60 steel grade is evaluated. The burst corroded performance function is developed using the M5 model tree for this complex real engineering failure problem. The structural reliability of a the pressurized gas pipeline containing external corrosion defects has been evaluated using hybrid reliability method combined by the M5 model tree and Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that increasing the defects depth are strongly reduced the safety levels of this problem.