Prediction of Power Consumption for Small Power Region Using Indexing Approach and Neural Network

摘要

The problem of prediction of 24-hour ahead power consumption in a small power region is a very important practical problem in power engineering. The most characteristic feature of the small region is large diversity of power consumption in the succeeding hours of the day making the prediction problem very hard. On the other side the accurate forecast of the power need for each of 24 hours of the next day enables to achieve significant saving on power delivery. The paper proposes the novel neural based method of forecasting the power consumption, taking into account the trend of its change associated with the particular hour of the day, type of the day as well as season of the year