Improvement of Fault Tree Analysis in Formal Safety Assessment Using Binary Decision Diagram

摘要

International Maritime Organization (IMO) implements the principles of risk management through a systematic process called Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). FSA is a structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, health, the marine environment and property, by using risk analysis and cost benefit assessment. One of the most widely used hazard identification and risk analysis techniques in FSA is Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method. However, only basic conventional methodology of the FTA technique is used in FSA. When dealing with large fault trees, the limitations of FTA in terms of accuracy and the efficiency become apparent. It is necessary for IMO to improve FTA method in FSA. In recent years, the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) method has been developed that solves fault trees and overcomes the disadvantages of the conventional FTA approach. In this paper, the BDD method is introduced for the application in FSA, as it has never been used in FSA studies. A commonly used construction method and some basic event ordering methods of BDD are described. By applying BDD to FTA, two main issues concerned in FSA, minimal cut set and top event probability, can be obtained efficiently and accurately comparing to the analysis using a conventional FTA method.