Reflections on theory building and theory integration following a systemdynamics approach

摘要

Conceptualization is a critical task in the development of system dynamics models, whichstarts early in the modeling process, and extends to later stages in the development of anysystem dynamics project. The procedures and characteristics of model conceptualizationhave striking parallels with the process of theory building as described in many differentstrands of literature. Considering also that the modeling process as a whole is an iterativeprocess of comparing and contrasting data and current theories by means of a rigorous yetintuitive process, it seems appropriate to reflect on the modeling process as a theorybuilding effort, which is the main purpose of this paper. In order to illustrate the differencesbetween theory building approaches, the paper presents two examples of system-dynamicsbasedtheory building efforts. Thinking of the model development work as a theorybuilding process has the potential of bringing new insights to the conceptualization ofsystem dynamics models, and to the criteria used to assess the suitability of our models.The paper concludes with the introduction of a set of criteria to assess good theories andwith reflections on the further development of these criteria for model validation purposes.