DETERMINATION OF TC DANGEROUS AREAS BASED ON MULTISOURCE TC FORECAST

摘要

For the operation of ships' avoiding tropical cyclone (TC), there are some problems for the TC warning areas given by observatories. The information of TC is incomplete, the probability of TC falling circle is not big enough, and TC dangerous areas are uncertain because of the forecast errors of TC track. All the problems will be not good for safety decision-making of avoiding TC. Based on the statistical analysis of 1092 times 24h TC track forecasts made by China, Japan and the United States for 96 TC from 2001 to 2006, we got the relations between forecasting dispersions and average errors of TC forecasting positions. A method of determining TC dangerous areas based on multisource TC forecast is put forward. Fully considered the inaccuracy of TC track forecasts, the actual states of strong wind and huge waves around TC, and different forecasting results of TC track, the TC dangerous areas got using this method can be better for the scientifically decision-making of safety TC avoidance routing.