Application of Computer Simulation to Support Risk Index Assessment of Large-size Stadium Crowd

摘要

In this paper a new Crowd Risk Index Assessment Approach (CRIAA) for stadium is presented based on the risk theory and safety assessment methods, which is a semi-quantitative risk assessment method. This method focuses primarily on risk calculation model across its whole scope, and through explaining and evaluating the risk enlarging factors and risk mitigating factors, confirming the actual risk and comparing to the acceptable risk level. In addition, the crowd capacity index as the basal factor is introduced into the base risk index. The emphasis of this paper is the calculation of evacuation capacity index value for risk mitigate index, computer simulation technology was applied to find a way to calculate the index value of evacuation capacity, and a case of Tianjin Olympic Centre stadium second floor stand was chosen for validating this method. The value of egress and passage capacity sub-index value can be concluded through the comparison of Total Evacuation Time (TET) and the criterion value. The incident scene of simulation that evacuation egress jam was set with ETA, and the results indicated that the risk of stadium was acceptable in normal condition, but the evacuation exceed the criterion evacuation time with the abnormally condition that the stadium egress passages were jammed. This method can make up the shortage of subjective graded, and show great meaning in dealing with crowd risk assessment of stadium, especially 2008 Beijing Olympic Stadium, crowd safety planning and management as well as emergency.