A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL OF WATER SHORTAGE AND ITS APPLICATION FOR ANALYZING BEARING CAPACITY OF WATER RESOURCES

摘要

In this paper, we suggest a risk assessment model of water shortage based on information diffusion theory and use it to analyze the bearing capacity of water resources in Jinhua City. From the application we know that the carrying capacity of water resources is the maximum support capability on human activities under a certain stage of social development and sound circulation in ecosystem. For Jinhua City, we discover that the water shortage is not the type of lacking of water sources, but the water quality and water conservancy projects. Therefore, only the middle scheme of giving attentions to both economic development and environmental protection is the first choice.