Wavelet Analysis on the Evolutionary Process of Regional Economic Disparity in China During the Past 50 Years

摘要

There have been many literatures about the regional disparity of economic development in China since, the late 1970s. Some scholars argue that disparity of regional development in China has been expanded since 1978, but others find it reduced since 1978. The findings of some scholars show that the evolutionary process of the disparity of regional economic development in China follow the inverted U shape, but some others don't think so. What is the true tendency?, and is it really inverted U shape? How did the disparity of regional economic development in China evolve during the past 50 years? This paper attempts to answer the questions in a new insight of wavelet analysis of Theil index sequence analysis. Firstly, Theil index is calculated and decomposed from 1952-2000 by the comparative price in 1952, which reveal the change of inter-provincial disparity in whole China, coastal, middle and western region, and the disparity between the three regions. Secondly, Wavelet is used to produce an orthogonal decomposition and an approximation of Theil index sequence by different timescales, which show the dynamic process of regional disparity of economic development in China during the past five decades.