Wind power ultra-short-term forecasting method combined with pattern-matching and ARMA-model

摘要

In accordance with 0∼6 hour ultra-short-term forecasting of wind power, a method combine two ways of forecasting is put forward in this paper, in this method, Pattern-matching is used to make a 0∼24 hour forecasting by taking the data of the day before the forecasting day as input, ARMA-model forecasting is used to make a 0∼1 hour forecasting, combine the two results of forecasting to get a 0∼6 hour forecasting result. The example shows this method can improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting compared to traditional ARMA-model forecasting.