Modeling Modern Social-Network-Based Epidemics: A Case Study of Rose

摘要

The social-network-based epidemics, such as email-based ones, have been long studied. However, few have noticed some newly emerging epidemics which especially based on portable devices. In this paper, we think of such viruses and take a representative, the Rose epidemic, for case study. We build a model with a system of differential equations and closed-form solutions for three propagation scenes correspondingly. With both theoretical and numerical analysis, we find out that (1) Rose is able to infect hosts as exponentially as the Internet-based worms do;(2) In the Internet cafe scene, it is difficult to contain Rose even with reactive recovery measures; (3) the most influential factors for Rose's propagation are the amount of hosts and portable devices and the lifetime of Internet cafe machines, while the arrival rate of clients and the proportion of immune machines only affect in the print service office scene.