IWG model for the heterosexual spread of HIV and the demographic impact of the AIDS epidemic.

摘要

This paper presents the State Department's Interagency Working Group (IWG) model for the spread of HIV. The model is fully operational for Pattern 2 (heterosexual & blood transmission) and Pattern 3 (heterosexual, homosexual, and IV drug transmission) countries. This model was developed for various uses, including technical research, policy analysis, and support for decision making. Research uses include studying patterns of HIV spread, assessing the relative effect of different processes on the spread of HIV, examining the demographic impact of HIV infections, and comparing the potential impact of behavioral versus medical intervention strategies. The model will be used in workshops where policy makers and health officials can do hands-on scenario analyses, gain qualitative insights into the possible long-term-epidemiological and demographic impact of HIV, gauge the uncertainties in predictions for the future, and study the impact of HIV, gauge the uncertainties in predictions for the future, and study the impact that intervention strategies are likely to have. The computational model uses a deterministic system of differential equations and runs on a 286- or a 386-based IBM-compatible machine under Microsoft Windows. The program requires an input ASCII (text) file to run; all parameters used by the model are input through this file and, therefore, are user-accessible. The software is user-friendly, mouse-driven, and allows for interactive manipulation of input data and visualization and processing of model outputs. 15 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab. (ERA citation 15:036006)