Fuzzy logic based determination of cost overrun of hydro power plant

摘要

The paper presents fuzzy tool for determination of cost overrun of a river type hydro power plant. The factors responsible for cost overrun have been selected from the survey conducted with the experts having experience in similar field. Hydro power plants have complicated structures lead to long running construction period, involves large amount of investment and hence are usually exposed to cost and schedule overruns risk. Cost overrun in a hydro power plant ultimately leads to increase in generation cost of electricity. Cost of electricity matters even if it is a green energy because of limited financial resources available in developing countries. The proposed cost overrun probability determination tool will help investors in making decision under uncertainty.