Modified Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Approach to Cost Overrun Risk Assessment of Power Plant Projects

摘要

Cost overrun risk assessment in the preliminary stages of a power plant project is laden with subjectivity, uncertainty, imprecision, and the vagueness of expert judgment. Current fuzzy approaches to risk assessment in such projects specifically require improvements in the reliability and aggregation process of experts' judgments as well as the incorporation of project phase-based risk assessment to comprehend the sources of the risks and their corresponding effects on cost overruns. In response, this study proposes a modified fuzzy group decision-making approach (FGDMA) and assesses cost overrun risks considering different project phases [(1)design and procurement, and (2)construction and commissioning] of the power plant projects of varying types, sizes/capacities, and contracts. The proposed methodology is applied to 10 different project scenarios to better understand the context of project risks and their profile and identify the critical cost overrun risks involved. This study will aid the comprehensive assessment of risks and increase the accuracy of project budgeting and contingency allocation decisions.