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A Rapid Loss Index for Tropical Cyclone Disasters in China

机译:中国热带气旋灾害快速损失指数

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摘要

Disaster emergency response needs rapid estimation on disaster loss. In China it is of great importance to develop a loss index for rapidly assessing tropical cyclone (TC) disaster loss. In this paper, a new composite loss index for TC landing on China is proposed after reviewing past methods. Firstly, correlation analysis is made between historical TC direct loss and variables reflecting time, space and intensity of TC. Secondly, a rapid loss index is developed which is composed of mean translation speed, duration on the land, mean radius of wind exceeding Beaufort force eight and maximum of maximum sustained wind speed, four variables selected stepwise in the former step, as well as two parameters and four constants. Finally, the parameters and constants in the index are set based on data of 97 TCs from 1990 to 2009. The correlation coefficient of the index to loss value is 0.74 and passes confidence level of 99%, which means it is effective for rapid damage assessment.
机译:灾害应急响应需要对灾害损失进行快速估计。在中国,建立损耗指数以快速评估热带气旋(TC)灾害损失非常重要。在回顾了过去的方法之后,本文提出了一种新的TC在中国登陆的综合损失指数。首先,对历史TC直接损失与反映TC时间,空间和强度的变量之间进行相关分析。其次,建立了一个快速损耗指数,该指数由平均平移速度,在陆地上的持续时间,超过博福特力的平均风半径八和最大持续风速的最大值,在前一步中逐步选择的四个变量以及两个参数和四个常数。最后,基于1990年至2009年的97个TC的数据,设置了指数中的参数和常数。该指数与损失值的相关系数为0.74,通过99%的置信度,这对于快速的损害评估是有效的。 。

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