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国际灾害风险科学学报：英文版

国际灾害风险科学学报：英文版

《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》创刊于2010年9月，是由北京师范大学和民政部国家减灾中心共同主办，减灾与应急管理研究院和地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室承办的学术性全英文季刊。期刊主要刊登有关灾害风险研究理论、方法、技术和管理问题的高质量原创性学术论文和评论性文章等。
  • 发文量：424
  • 被引量：137
  • H指数：0
  • 开始收录时间：2010,0(1)
  • CNKI综合因子：0.236
  • 维普期刊影响因子： 0.218
  • 万方期刊影响因子：0.39
  • 创刊时间：2010
  • 国内刊号/CN：11-5970/N
    国际刊号/ISSN：2095-0055
  • 发行周期：双月刊
    邮发代号：
  • 主管单位：Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China
    主办单位：民政部国家减灾中心;北京师范大学
国际灾害风险科学学报：英文版-联系信息
  • 主编：Peijun Shi;Carlo Jaeger
  • 电话：010-58808661
  • 邮箱：
  • 地址：Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street，Haidian District,Beijing
  • 邮编：100875
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国际灾害风险科学学报：英文版 >2023年第3期

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  • 摘要：In this study, loss estimation models were developed for reasonably accurate assessment of economic and human losses from seismic events in the Mediterranean region, based on damage assessment at an urban scale.Data were compiled from existing worldwide databases,and completed with earthquake information from regional studies. Economic data were converted to a single common currency unit(2015 USD value) and the wealth of the areas affected by 65 earthquakes of the region from 1900 to 2015 was assessed. Reduced-form models were used to determine economic and human losses, with earthquake magnitude and intensity as hazard-related variables, and gross domestic product of the affected area and the affected population as exposure-related variables. Damage to buildings was also used as a hazard-related variable to predict economic and human losses. Finally, site-specific regression models were proposed for economic and human losses due to earthquakes in the Mediterranean region, and more specifically, in Algeria. We show that by introducing the damage variable into the models, prediction error can be reduced, and that accuracy of loss model estimation is site dependent and requires regional data on earthquake losses to improve. A case study for Constantine, Algeria shows the improvements needed for increased accuracy.
  • 摘要：Extreme temperature events have affected Chinese city residents more frequently and intensively since the early 2000 s, but few studies have identified the impacts of extreme temperature on mortality in different city clusters of China. This study first used a distributed lag,nonlinear model to estimate the county/district-specific effects of extreme temperature on nonaccidental and cardiovascular mortality. The authors then applied a multivariate meta-analysis to pool the estimated effects in order to derive regional temperature–mortality relationship in three large city clusters—the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region, the Yangtze River Delta(YRD), and the Pearl River Delta(PRD), which represent northern and southern regions. With 0–3 days’ lag, the strongest heat-related mortality effect was observed in the BTH region(with relative risk(RR) of 1.29;95% confidence interval(CI):1.13–1.47), followed by the YRD(RR = 1.25;95% CI:1.13–1.35) and the PRD(RR = 1.14;95% CI: 1.01–1.28)areas. With 0–21 days’ lag, the cold effect was pronounced in all city clusters, with the highest extreme cold-related mortality risk found in the PRD area(RR = 2.27;95% CI:1.63–3.16), followed by the YRD area(RR = 1.85;95%CI: 1.56–2.20) and BTH region(RR = 1.33;95% CI:0.96–1.83). People in the southern regions tended to be more vulnerable to cold stress, but the northern population was more sensitive to heat stress. By examining the effects of extreme temperature in city clusters of different regions,our findings underline the role of adaptation towards heat and cold, which has important implications for public health policy making and practice.
  • 摘要：Determining the location of earthquake emergency shelters and the allocation of affected population to them are key issues that face shelter planning and emergency management. To solve this emergency shelter location–allocation problem, evacuation time and the construction cost of shelters—both influenced by the evacuation population size and its spatial distribution—are two important considerations. In this article, a mathematical model with two objectives—to minimize total weighted evacuation time(TWET) and total shelter area(TSA)—is allied with a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm to address the problem. The relationships between evacuation population size, evacuation time, and total shelter area are examined using Jinzhan Town in Chaoyang District of Beijing, China, as a case study. The results show that TWET has a power function relationship with TSA under different population size scenarios, and a linear function applies between evacuation population and TWET under different TSAs. The joint relationships of TSA, TWET, and population size show that TWET increases with population increase and TSA decrease, and compared with TSA, population influences TWET more strongly. Given a reliable projection of population change and spatial planning of a study area, this method can be useful for government decision making on the location of earthquake emergency shelters and on the allocation of evacuees to those shelters.
  • 摘要：Disaster damage assessment is an important basis for the objective assessment of the social impacts of disasters and for the planning of recovery and reconstruction. It is also an important research field with regard to disaster mitigation and risk management. Quantitative assessment of physical damage refers to the determination of the physical damage state of the exposed elements in a disaster area, reflecting the aggregate quantities of damages. It plays a key role in the comprehensive damage assessment of major natural hazard-induced disasters. The National Disaster Reduction Center of China has established a technical work flow for the quantitative assessment of disaster physical damage using remote sensing data.This article presents a quantitative assessment index system and method that can be integrated with high-resolution remote sensing data, basic geographical data, and field survey data. Following the 2014 Ludian Earthquake in Yunnan Province, China, this work flow was used to assess the damage to buildings, roads, and agricultural and forest resources, and the assessment results were incorporated into the Disaster Damage Comprehensive Assessment Report of the 2014 Ludian Earthquake for the State Council of China. This article also outlines some possible improvements that can be addressed in future work.
  • 摘要：This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nin?o costero(coastal)of 2017,which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru.Such a localized El Nin?o was not documented since 1925.An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported)because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S.and Peru),which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making.Partly to blame was the El Nin?o definition problem,which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk,depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event.Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nin?o costero’s onset and impacts from the El Nin?o 2015–2016 were less than expected.Furthermore,a new government was in place,which may have hindered action.Thus,El Nin?o costero provides lessons to heed,not only with respect to the forecast information,but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting,which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.
  • 摘要：High-risk areas for glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) disasters in China are mainly concentrated in the middle-eastern Himalayas and Nyainqe?ntanglha(Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains), Tibetan Plateau. In the past 20 years, glaciers in these regions have retreated and thinned rapidly as a response to regional climate warming,leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing glacial lakes. These areas are located in the border belt between the Indian and the Eurasian plates, where tectonic seismic activity is also frequent and intense. Earthquakes have often compromised the stability of mountain slopes, glaciers, and moraine dams, resulting in an imbalance in the state of glacial lakes and an increase of loose materials in valleys. It is foreseeable that the possibility of GLOFs and disaster occurrence will be great in the context of frequent earthquakes and continued climate warming. This article presents the temporal and spatial characteristics of GLOF disasters, as well as the conditions and mechanisms of GLOF disaster formation,and proposes an integrated risk management strategy to cope with GLOF disasters. It aims to facilitate the mitigation of the impacts of GLOF disasters on mountain economic and social systems, and improve disaster risk analysis, as well as the capability of risk management and disaster prevention and reduction.
  • 摘要：The World Landslide Forum is a triennial mainstream conference that gathers together the scientific and technological community, policymakers, industry actors, public officials, and other stakeholders, who deal with the understanding and management of landslide disaster risk. The establishment of the ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships 2015–2025 for Global Promotion of Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk in Sendai during the 2015 World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction(WCDRR) enabled the landslide science and technology community support the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 in order to prevent new and reduce existing disaster risk.The 4th World Landslide Forum(WLF4) was held in Ljubljana, Slovenia, from 29 May to 2 June 2017 and discussed the progress of landslide research and risk reduction for advancing the culture of living with natural hazards. A high-level panel composed of United Nations officials, international stakeholders, and national organizations sought to identify the best mechanisms to be developed by the community of the International Consortium on Landslides(ICL). The objective was to advance the implementation of the ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships,to achieve a better commitment among partners, and to provide substantive services to developing countries. During the WLF4, the 2017 Ljubljana Declaration on Landslide Risk Reduction was adopted and the concept framework of the Kyoto 2020 Commitment was endorsed.
  • 摘要：Although time-averaged shear wave velocity to the depth of 30 m(Vs30) is an important indicator of earthquake site effects, it is difficult to obtain. Several proxies have been used either individually or in combination to infer Vs30 values during seismic hazard estimation under limited observational conditions. Sichuan Province is an area highly prone to earthquakes. Complex geological structures and lack of drilling sites mean that it is particularly important to establish a suitable approach for the estimation of Vs30 values for site classification. This study compared the application of three proxy-based approaches—geology-based, topographic slope-based, and terrain-based—to the estimation of Vs30 values in Sichuan Province. The results revealed that the residual between the measured logVs30 values and the estimations derived from the terrain-based approach was smallest, indicating best predictability. Stability analysis of the three approaches also showed that the terrain-based approach performed best. However, its performance in the plain area was poor,that is, the Vs30 values were mostly underestimated. This might indicate that the old strata, hard rock, and alluvial deposits formed by Quaternary glacier sediments were not identified appropriately in the plain area, highlighting the need for localized corrections.
  • 摘要：The utility poles of electric power distribution lines are very vulnerable to many natural hazards, while power outages due to pole failures can lead to adverse economic and social consequences. Utility companies,therefore, need to monitor the conditions of poles regularly and predict their future conditions accurately and promptly to operate the distribution system continuously and safely.This article presents a novel pole monitoring method that uses state-of-the-art deep learning and computer vision methods to meet the need. The proposed method automatically captures the current pole inclination angles using an unmanned aerial vehicle. The method calculates the bending moment exerted on the poles due to wind and gravitational forces, as well as cable weight, to compare it with the moment of rupture. The method also includes a machine learning-based model that is built by using a support vector machine to predict the resilience conditions of a pole after a wind event in a faster manner. The three modules of the proposed method are effective tools to classify pole conditions and are expected to enable utility companies to increase the resilience of their systems.
  • 摘要：Climate change, especially as reflected in heat waves, is a rising threat worldwide. Appropriate use of cooling devices can protect people from health impacts during a heat wave. A population-based telephone survey was conducted in a representative sample of residents in Hong Kong to investigate ownership and use of domestic cooling devices, identify correlates, and examine their associations with risk perception of potential health impact of climate change. More than 90% of the 1002 respondents owned and used cooling devices at home. The majority(57.7%) perceived the potential health risk of climate change at a high level. However, risk perception had no relationship with ownership and utilization of cooling devices. Old people(≥ 65 years), the low-educated, those with low income, and those with chronic diseases were more likely not to use air conditioners when feeling hot.Our findings suggest that there are no signs showing people have taken more protective actions although half of respondents recognized climate change as a threat. Familial economic condition may be a major determinant in ownership and use of air conditioners at home. Old people and those with chronic diseases are at high risk of adverse exposure to climate change and therefore should be equipped with appropriate measures to use cooling devices.
  • 摘要：During the 2012–2016 drought in La Guajira,Colombia, child mortality rates rose to 23.4 out of 1000.Most of these children belonged to the Wayuu indigenous community, the largest and one of the most vulnerable in Colombia. At the municipal level, this study found a significant positive correlation between the average child mortality rate and households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, the number of people without access to health insurance, being part of the indigenous population,being illiterate, lacking sewage systems, living in rural areas, and large households with members younger than5 years old and older than 65 years old. No correlation was found with households without access to a water source.The stepwise regression analysis showed that households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, no members older than 65 years old, but several children younger than5 years old, account for 90.4% of the child mortality rate.This study concludes that, if inhabitants had had better incomes or assets, as well as an adequate infrastructure,they could have faced the drought without the observed increase in child mortality.
  • 摘要：This study explores risk transfer options that precarious and marginal urban communities could use to protect themselves from future damages and losses generated by socio-natural hazards and disasters at the individual and community levels. The design is framed within an evidence-based disaster risk reduction(DRR) strategy and follows the case study research approach. We analyze the2018 Neighborhood Approach for DRR programming evaluation carried out in four Latin American cities’ informal settlements and review relevant risk transfer experiences aimed at vulnerable populations. We calculate the pure risk premium for the four cases selected, using a previous catastrophe risk assessment for earthquakes and landslides. We propose three risk transfer options based on our analysis:(1) voluntary collective insurance;(2) structural reinforcement with a comprehensive housing insurance;and(3) hybrid parametric insurance. Risk transfer mechanisms conventionally focus on residual risk management. Here, due to the precariousness of the analyzed urban settings, the proposed alternatives go beyond the management of just residual risk to positively impact the beneficiaries’ quality of life and the reduction of the built environment’s physical vulnerability in the short and medium terms. Our study proposes a prospective estimation of future risk despite the limitations of data availability. This study opens a window to new approaches and proposes a systematic process to design DRR policy aimed at the poor and vulnerable strata of society.
  • 摘要：This study investigated how small and medium enterprises(SMEs) in a country perceive major global risks. The aim was to explore how country attributes and circumstances affect SME assessments of the likelihood,impacts, and rankings of global risks, and to find out if SME risk assessment and rankings differ from the global rankings. Data were gathered using an online survey of manufacturing SMEs in Turkey. The results show that global economic risks and geopolitical risks are of major concern for SMEs, and environmental risks are at the bottom of their ranking. Among the economic risks, fiscal crises in key economies and high structural unemployment or underemployment were found to be the highest risks for the SMEs. Failure of regional or global governance, failure of national governance, and interstate conflict with regional consequences were found to be among the top geopolitical risks for the SMEs. The SMEs considered the risk of largescale cyber-attacks and massive incident of data fraud/theft to be relatively higher than other global technological risks.Profound social instability and failure of urban planning were among the top societal risks for the SMEs. Although the global environmental and disaster risks were ranked lowest on the list, man-made environmental damage and disasters and major natural hazard-induced disasters were ranked the highest among this group of risks. Overall, the results show that SMEs at a country level, for example Turkey, perceive global risks differently than the major global players.
  • 摘要：Disaster response actors are facing new challenges, which encompass not only new and ever more complex threats but also the need to collaborate across organizational boundaries and even state borders.Depending on scale, these interactions have to work across governance setups, political and legal conditions, organizational cultures, as well as personal preferences and experiences that vary among actors, organizations, and countries. But which concrete measures are taken by crisis management actors at different scales to bridge these challenges and which of these could serve others as example to address comparable challenges in their contexts? This study made attempts to analyze whether certain solutions across organizations and states exist that facilitate effective interorganizational crisis management in the member states of the European Union(EU). It is based on selected expert interviews with representatives of different types of disaster response organizations(health services,police services, fire services, and other crisis management organizations) from seven EU member states(Germany,Netherlands, United Kingdom, Ireland, Italy, Austria, and Greece).
  • 摘要：Enhancing community resilience has increasingly involved national and regional governments adopting a multi-stakeholder approach because of the potential interagency benefits. This has led to questions about how best to involve stakeholder groups in translating community resilience policies into practice. This exploratory study contributes to this discussion by addressing two key areas that are fundamental in the concerted effort to build community resilience to natural hazards:(1) stakeholder understanding of community resilience as a concept;and(2) the difficulties associated with the processes of risk assessment and preparedness that stakeholders face locally in building community resilience. Data were collected through semistructured interviews with 25 practitioners and experts within Scotland’s resilience community, and were analyzed through an inductive approach to thematic analysis. These data show how the interpretation of community resilience differs across stakeholder groups. Analysis of the data reveals challenges around the nature of the risk assessment and its role in shaping risk perception and communication. Significant complications occur in communicating about low probability-high consequence events, perceived territoriality, competing risk prioritizations, and the challenges of managing hazards within a context of limited resources. The implications of these issues for policy and practice are also discussed.
  • 摘要：Understanding social resilience can assist in the formulation of disaster management policies to help communities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. However, direct social resilience measurement methods such as household surveys are not always a practical option as they are a time-and resource-exhaustive process. Existing measures mainly utilize publicly available census data, which often provide a poor and outdated assessment of current social resilience status. Another limitation includes a failure to capture multiple facets of indicators that are process-oriented and dynamic in nature such as mobility of people. These challenges can be addressed by employing a surrogate approach. Surrogates are alternative measures to depict the target indicator. The surrogate approach can capture key facets of a target indicator, which can be used as potential measures for the target indicator. A framework to conceptualize the surrogate approach is presented, and operationalized using a case study approach on the southeastern coast of Sri Lanka to identify surrogates to measure mobility of people as a resilience indicator. Six higher-order themes were identi-fied as potential surrogates to measure mobility of people in a disaster context. The approach proposed to methodically identify potential surrogates and their measurement protocols can help to improve the current knowledge base and understanding of complex interrelationships of social resilience.
  • 摘要：Expert scientific knowledge is fast becoming an integral part of disaster management, and, in the process, is changing the role of science for the reduction of disaster risks at the policy level. Yet science and policy operate in different domains between which there are often competing interests and modes of valuing knowledge. Based on research done as part of the research project Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union(ESPREssO), we discuss three major issues facing European Union member states with respect to the interface between science and policy for disaster risk reduction:knowledge transfer, disaster expertise, and risk awareness.In doing so, we hone in on three gaps: an epistemological gap, an institutional gap, and a strategic gap. We argue that these gaps can help explain underlying systematic challenges for the integration between science and policy for disaster risk reduction. These gaps need to be addressed by focusing on changes at the governance level.
  • 摘要：The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is supervised by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China and supported by the National Disaster Reduction Center.The Editorial Office is at the Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University.The journal is also supported by the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, the Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of the Ministry of Education, and the Integrated Risk Governance Project Office.
  • 摘要：The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is an interdisciplinary English language journal that publishes research articles addressing theoretical and methodological issues in disaster risk science,emergency response technology,and risk management;disaster risk governance policies and regulations;and case studies and comparative research internationally on responses to major disasters.The journal also publishes short articles and updates on projects,conferences,and research progress.
  • 摘要：This article provides a literature review of economic growth theories and identifies the implications of growth theories in addressing potential impacts of uncertain shocks, that is natural disasters. The extant literature seems inconclusive: some find positive effects of natural disasters on economic growth and others suggest either negative or no effect as such. Using a large panel dataset of 187 countries observed from 1960 to 2010, this article shows that the total number of people affected by floods significantly decreases the annual GDP per capita growth rate, whereas the death toll from floods has no substantial effect on the annual GDP per capita growth rate. One thousand in every one million people affected by floods decrease the GDP per capita growth rate by 0.005 %. This result is plausible, as floods are likely to create havoc in people’s livelihoods rather than claim a high human death toll. The article outlines future directions of research in the field of natural disaster augmented growth empirics.
  • 摘要：Cameroon has recorded disasters, both natural and man-made, in the past. The coastal city of Limbe and many other geographical locations are potential sites for future disasters. On the basis of interviews and related primary and secondary literature, this article looks at past occurrences of floods in Limbe, particularly those of 2001,and how the state and local authorities managed the challenge. Through this, it attempts an evaluation of state policies and the institutional structure for disaster risk reduction(DRR) and management in the country. The study reveals that Cameroon does not have a national disaster management structure and a national platform for DRR. Disaster related activities are lumped together with other civil protection responsibilities of the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization(MINATD) despite the country’s commitment to the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. Government interventions are more reactive than proactive although its strategy to disaster management indicates both disaster preparedness and emergency intervention and rehabilitation. The study concludes that the present strategy is bureaucratic,financially burdensome, and does not really achieve the essential goals of DRR in saving lives and reducing vulnerability. For DRR to be effective in Cameroon, a permanent disaster management unit with regional and local structures should be put in place independent of other branches of the Department of Disaster and Emergency Services of MINATD and with each level exercising a significant degree of operative autonomy. A national policy and framework with emphasis on DRR should be adopted in the country.
  • 摘要：The potential impacts of climate change on the Great Hungarian Plain based on two regional climate models,REMO and ALADIN,were analyzed using indicators for environmental hazards.As the climate parameters(temperature,precipitation,and wind)will change in the two investigated periods(2021–2050 and 2071–2100),their influences on drought,wind erosion,and inland excess water hazards are modeled by simple predictive models.Drought hazards on arable lands will increasingly affect the productivity of agriculture compared to the reference period(1961–1990).The models predict an increase between 12.3%(REMO)and 20%(ALADIN)in the first period,and between 35.6%(REMO)and 45.2%(ALADIN)in the second period.The increase of wind erosion hazards is not as obvious(+15%for the first period in the REMO model).Inland excess water hazards are expected to be slightly reduced(-4 to 0%)by both model predictions in the two periods without showing a clear tendency on reduction.All three indicators together give a first regional picture of potential hazards of climate change.The predictive model and data combinations of the regional climate change models and the hazard assessment models provide insights into regional and subregional impacts of climate change and will be useful in planning and land management activities.
  • 摘要：Pingwu County of Sichuan Province was severely hit by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and experienced widely distributed earthquake-induced landslides.We proposed an integrated method that incorporates landslide triggering factors embedded in the Newmark displacement computation and other environmental factors,expressed as lithology,land-use type,vegetation cover(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI),elevation,and profile and plan curvature,in the analysis of earthquake-induced landslide hazards in the study area.The earthquake-induced landslide inventory of this area was obtained by visual interpretation of two highresolution SPOT-5 images before and after the earthquake.We used GIS tools to generate an equal number of landslide and non-landslide cell samples in a 30-m grid map,and assigned triggering and environmental variables to each cell.A logistic regression model was built to investigate the occurrence of earthquake-induced landslides.The results show that Newmark displacement(in which triggering factors are embedded)and lithology(as an environmental factor)were the two dominant variables controlling landslide occurrence.Other environmental factors,including NDVI,land-use type,and elevation,also significantly affected landslide occurrences.Overall81.2%correctness was achieved in the regression model.The results confirm the predictive power of our method,which integrates both triggering and environmental factors in modeling earthquake-induced landslides.
  • 摘要：One of the most serious resource and health issues in coastal communities of Bangladesh is the scarcity of safe drinking water, triggered by the combined effects of salinity, arsenic, and drought. This article explores community perception of vulnerabilities in daily life, livelihood, and environment, and investigates how communities and institutions cope with or adapt to drinking water scarcity. This study outlines community expectations for support from government and nongovernment organizations to overcome this problem. The findings reveal that nearly all respondents from the drinking water scarcity area perceive that salinity is the primary reason for the lack of safe drinking water compared to arsenic and drought hazards. Despite a number of socioeconomic factors and a geographical location that aggravates the coastal communities’ vulnerability, these communities have established their own adaptation mechanism to cope with this crisis.Government and nongovernment organizations have also supported community efforts to cope with the problem. By emphasizing both community adaptation methods and efforts of institutions, this article illustrates an integrated community-based approach, which would be effective for reducing drinking water scarcity in the southwestern coastal region of the country.
  • 摘要：Rainwater harvesting technology is considered an innovative and effective mechanism for reducing drinking water risks due to arsenic contamination and water salinity in coastal Bangladesh. However, adoption of such tanks remains elusive. Most studies on disaster risk communication are predominantly based on individuallevel cognitive modeling approaches, which fail to address the role of social groups, human relations, and other collective social factors in the dissemination process of disaster preventive measures. From the viewpoint of social implementation, community adoption of unfamiliar technology for disaster risk mitigation and preparedness requires another approach. Given the challenge to promote rainwater harvesting technology in the study area of coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the role of various social networks including cohesive groups(friends), structural equivalent groups(individuals who have the same position in society), and spatial groups(neighbors) in three information sharing and processing activities—hearing, observation, and discussion. Results show that those individuals who have similar cohesive affiliations tend to become hearing and discussion partners. Cohesive groups share a learning opportunity and are bounded by normative constraints in terms of direct and intimate social relations.Spatial groups facilitate observation, which provides visual learning. Structurally equivalent groups are not relevant in adoption dissemination;therefore competition or similar social environment did not influence the rainwater tank dissemination activities.
  • 摘要：The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is supervised by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People’s Republic of China and supported by the National Disaster Reduction Center of the ministry.The Editorial Offi ce is at the Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Beijing Normal University.The journal is also supported by the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,the Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of the Ministry of Education,and the Integrated Risk Governance Project Offi ce.
  • 摘要：The public has access to a range of mobile applications(apps)for disasters.However,there has been limited academic research conducted on disaster apps and how the public perceives their usability.This study explores end-users''perceptions of the usability of disaster apps.It proposes a conceptual framework based on insights gathered from thematically analyzing online reviews.The study identifies new usability concerns particular to disaster apps''use:(1)content relevance depends on the app''s purpose and the proximate significance of the information to the hazard event''s time and location;(2)app dependability affects users''perceptions of usability due to the lifesafety association of disaster apps;(3)users perceive advertisements to contribute to their cognitive load;(4)users expect apps to work efficiently without unnecessary consumption of critical phone resources;(5)appropriate audio interface can improve usability,as sounds can boost an app''s alerting aspect;and,finally(6)in-app browsing may potentially enhance users''impression of the structure of a disaster app.As a result,this study argues for focussed research and development on public-facing disaster apps.Future research should consider the conceptual framework and concerns presented in this study when building design guidelines and theories for disaster apps.
  • 摘要：In emergency decision making(EDM),it is necessary to generate an effective alternative quickly.Case-based reasoning(CBR)has been applied to EDM;however,choosing the most suitable case from a set of similar cases after case retrieval remains challenging.This study proposes a dynamic method based on case retrieval and group decision making(GDM),called dynamic casebased reasoning group decision making(CBRGDM),for emergency alternative generation.In the proposed method,first,similar historical cases are identified through case similarity measurement.Then,evaluation information provided by group decision makers for similar cases is aggregated based on regret theory,and comprehensive perceived utilities for the similar cases are obtained.Finally,the most suitable historical case is obtained from the case similarities and the comprehensive perceived utilities for similar historical cases.The method is then applied to an example of a gas explosion in a coal company in China.The results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective in EDM.The advantages of the proposed method are verified based on comparisons with existing methods.In particular,dynamic CBRGDM can adjust the emergency alternative according to changing emergencies.The results of application of dynamic CBRGDM to a gas explosion and comparison with existing methods verify its feasibility and practicability.
  • 摘要：Partnerships have become a comer stone of contemporary research that recognizes working across disciplines and co-production with intended users as essential to enabling sustainable resilience-building.Furthermore,research that addresses sustainable development challenges brings an urgent need to reflect on the ways that partnerships are supported,and for the disaster risk management and resilience communities,efforts to support realization of the wider 2030 Agenda for sustainable development bring particular pressures.In November 2019,the UK Disasters Research Group(DRG)brought together a number of key stakeholders focused on disaster risk,resilience,and sustainability research relevant to Official DevelopmeAssistance to consider how fit for purpose existing partnership models are for the pace of change required to deliver the priorities of the wider 2030 Agenda.Participants were invited to discuss how research partnerships across three levels(individual and project-based;national and institutional;and international)could be improved based on elements that facilitate robust partnerships and learning from aspects that hinder them.From the discussions,participanls emphasized the importance of effective communication mechanisms in building partnerships,co-designing projects,and establishing shared objectives.Enhanced approaches to addressing equitable partnerships and funding more substantive timelines will be key to responding to the challenges of the 2030 Agenda.
  • 摘要：Disaster research,conflict research,and peace research have rich and deep histories,yet they do not always fully intersect or learn from each other,even when they investigate if and how disasters lead to conflict or peace.Scholarship has tended to focus on investigating causal linkages between disaster(including those associated with climate change)and conflict,and disaster diplomacy emerged as a thread of explanatory research that investigates how and why disaster-related activities do and do not in fluence peace and conflict.However,definitive conclusions on the disaster-conflict-peace nexus have evaded scientific consensus,in part due to conceptual,methodological,and interpretive differences among studies.This article highlights that this nexus would benefit from a more robust engagement with each field''s foundational research that explores beyond binary and crude distinctions.Examples are concepts of destructive and constructive conflict;direct,structural,and cultural violence,and their relationships to vulnerability;negative and positive peace;and the ideals and realities of peacebuilding and conflict transformation.This article demonstrates how integrated scholarship could open up and advance new lines of questioning,with implications for developing cohere nt research,policy,and practice.The article concludes by offering recommendations for how to better connect disaster,conflict,and peace research.

    国际灾害风险科学学报：英文版的期刊信息

    • 曾用名：
    • 创刊时间：2010
    • 地区：CHINA MAINLAND
    • 语言：中文
    • 热门主题：DISASTER JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK VULNERABILITY RISK DISASTERS FLOOD
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      3

      GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY:Q3;WATER RESOURCES:Q2;METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES:Q3;

      Environmental Science:Global and Planetary Change;Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law;Social Sciences:Geography, Planning and Development;Safety Research;

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