Life Prediction on Metal Structure of Port Crane Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

摘要

The defective categories of port crane is studied in details, based on metal structure fault detection, to understand the actual status of a port crane.First the prediction of port crane life based on Paris model is introduced.But, this traditional residual life prediction is not so accurate considering fracture mechanics development.Then, the prediction model based on grey system theory is introduced for the study of port crane, and a grey model GM(1,1) of crack propagation is established.Next, a generic predict formula of life prediction of port crane is constructed.Finally, a case study is confirmed that the prediction has a good agreement with field data, and its relative error is less than 6%, so the proposed model has good precision and forecast creditability.