MODEL GENERATION DEVICE FOR LIFESPAN PREDICTION, MODEL GENERATION METHOD FOR LIFESPAN PREDICTION, AND STORAGE MEDIUM STORING MODEL GENERATION PROGRAM FOR LIFESPAN PREDICTION

摘要

A model generation device 30 comprises: an actual result information generation unit 31 that, on the basis of failure history information 301 of an object for which the lifespan is to be predicted, uses an order statistic quantity calculation method 310 to generate actual result information 311 representing the relationship between a use time relating to the object and a reliability degree; a probability distribution model generation unit 32 that generates a probability distribution model 321 similar to the actual result information 311, for each period obtained by setting a number of divisions for dividing the use time into at least one period and then dividing the use time into the set number of divisions; a calculation unit 33 that, for each number of divisions, uses an information quantity criteria 330 to calculate the compatibility 331 of the probability distribution model 321 with respect to the actual result information 311; and a determination unit 34 that determines a probability distribution model 321 for a number of divisions having the highest compatibility. Due to the foregoing, the present invention uses a probability distribution model relating to reliability to improve the prediction accuracy when predicting the lifespan of the object.