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A Fresh Look at Some Past RiskManagement Techniques

机译:重新审视一些过去的风险管理技术

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摘要

Even though the definitions, techniques, and tools used in both riskrnassessment and risk analysis may change over time, it seems that some basic questionsrnremain the same. One of those fundamental questions is, “Is there an effective method ofrnintegrating technical, schedule, and costs risks into the risk management model?” An issuernfacing many programs is an ill-defined technical baseline, I.e., scope, and that drives bothrnschedule and cost uncertainty. These methods, still largely used in the government sector,rnseem to effectively address all three parameters of program risk; technical, schedule, andrncost. In other words, “Can the program as presently structured technically and with respectrnto schedule, be completed for the budgeted amount of money?” This paper will look at thernmethodologies but, more importantly, attempt to bridge the science and math used in thernrisk management process to the practical application.
机译:尽管风险评估和风险分析中使用的定义,技术和工具可能会随着时间而改变,但似乎一些基本问题仍然是相同的。这些基本问题之一是:“是否存在一种将技术,进度和成本风险整合到风险管理模型中的有效方法?”许多程序面临的问题是技术基线(即范围)的定义不明确,并导致进度和成本不确定性。这些方法仍然在政府部门中广泛使用,似乎有效地解决了计划风险的所有三个参数。技术,进度和成本。换句话说,“可以按照预算的金额完成目前按照技术和计划安排的计划吗?”本文将研究方法论,但更重要的是,尝试将在风险管理过程中使用的科学和数学与实际应用联系起来。

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