A method of predicting interannual fluctuations of winter wheat

摘要

method u043fu0440u043eu0433u043du043eu0437u0438u0440u043eu0432u0430u043du0438u00a0 show inter annual fluctuations of yield of winter wheat, which are u043du0430u0431u043bu044eu0434u0435u043du0438u00a0 for yield of crops in two u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0438u0445 regio now, the u0441u0432u00a0u0437u0430u043du043du044bu0445 stable climatic u0441u0432u00a0u0437u00a0u043cu0438 projected region for at least 30 years before the projected year and dependence;where u0443i, xi - the yield of winter wheat in u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0438u0445 regions in the first pre projected year;;max, max x - u043cu0430u043au0441u0438u043cu0430u043bu044cu043du0430u00a0 yield of winter wheat in the u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0435u043c region;;a, b for the empirical coefficients of variation of natural conditions u0441u0432u00a0u0437u0438 projected region with u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0438u043c (temperature, precipitation, hydrothermal indicators, etc.), and (0,20,4], b [0,30,8];predicting the rise or decline in yield, respectively, even if () = 1 or sign () = - 1.