A method of predicting interannual fluctuations of the yield of barley

摘要

method u043fu0440u043eu0433u043du043eu0437u0438u0440u043eu0432u0430u043du0438u00a0 show inter annual fluctuations in yield u00a0u0447u043cu0435u043du00a0, which lead u043du0430u0431u043bu044eu0434u0435u043du0438u00a0 for yield of crops in two u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0438u0445 regions u0441u0432u00a0 use sustainable climate u0441u0432u00a0u0437u00a0u043cu0438 projected region for at least 30 years before the projected year and dependence;,;where u0443i, xi - yield u00a0u0447u043cu0435u043du00a0 in u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0438u0445 regions in the first pre projected year;;max, max x - u043cu0430u043au0441u0438u043cu0430u043bu044cu043du0430u00a0 u00a0u0447u043cu0435u043du00a0 u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0435u043c yields in the region;;a, b for the empirical coefficients of variation of natural conditions u0441u0432u00a0u0437u0438 projected region with u0438u043du0434u0438u0446u0438u0440u0443u044eu0449u0438u043c (temperature, precipitation, hydrothermal indicators, etc.);a 0,82,4 [], b [- 0.4 and 1.6).;predicting the rise or decline in yield, respectively, even if () = 1 or sign () = - 1.